Tomorrow’s weather: Why are floods increasing in Germany?

The Arctic and Antarctic are currently warming three times faster than the rest of the planet. According to scientists, the result of global warming is the destabilization of the jet stream, which allows air to circulate counterclockwise over the northern hemisphere.

If there is a large temperature difference between the poles and the equator, then the jet stream moves strongly and evenly. However, if the temperature of the poles increases, their temperature approaches that of the equator. This causes the jet stream to slow down.

According to Dieter Gerten, the consequence of this is that areas of high and low pressure stay longer over the area.

“In fact, you would expect the weather to change every three to seven days,” he says. Meanwhile, the weather continued for weeks.

Stronger storms, more disasters

The Global Weather Ratio Initiative It studies the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events and the extent to which humans influence the induction of strong floods.

When, in early July 2021, a severe heat wave in the Pacific Northwest held its grip firmly for several days, the initiative’s international science team announced that the event had occurred. Almost impossible without climate change It could have been.

Hayler Fowler and her team are working on weather models that will show the path of low pressure areas under pre-industrial conditions. These factors should then be supplemented with factors such as greenhouse gases in order to accurately calculate how these effects affect the weather.

“I’m sure there is a relationship between climate change and the extremes of this flood,” says Heller Fowler.

Kai Kornhuber is cautious when it comes to the role climate change plays in the flood disaster in Germany. But, he says, “I would be very surprised if it was all just an unfortunate coincidence.”

“The weather doesn’t change – it changes,” he adds. We know that with each degree of global warming, the torrential rains become more intense. I suppose we will face more disasters of this kind in the future.”

This article was originally published in English on NationalGeographic.com.