Elon Musk: “I’d be surprised if we didn’t land on Mars in five years”

As happened in the sixties and seventies with the arrival of man to the moon, The current space age promises many adventures, some of which even come with humans in other worlds.

While his competitors master the techniques of their own short-range and accurate spaceflight, he is the entrepreneur Elon Musk envisions himself in the next five years or, in the worst case, the next decade with one of his rockets hitting the surface of Mars with humans inside. His own space company called SpaceX was already ahead of its competitors and providing the rockets that Americans are back in space after nearly a decade in which they were forced to rely on Russian help to get their Soyuz rockets. . Thus, it continues its activities on the International Space Station.

“I would be surprised if we don’t land on Mars in five yearsElon Musk said in mid-December at Interview with Time magazine, where he was a cover and featured him as Person of the Year. “The overall goal is to make life multi-planetary and Allow humanity to become an alien civilization, confirmed Elon Musk, who believes SpaceX will help turn this idea into reality. Similarly, the businessman considers Mars as the candidate planet to become a new home for humanity if the Earth becomes uninhabitable.

In his last post in Lex Friedman podcastElon Musk reiterated this idea once again. When do you think SpaceX will put humans on Mars? Was it Lex Friedman’s question. After a seemingly endless pause, Elon Musk was emphatic: “At best, 5 years. At worst, 10 years.”. A very optimistic vision that will depend on the solution of many non-secondary questions, both in the field of engineering and economics.

“The Starship is the most complex and advanced rocket ever. The primary improvement of the Starship is to reduce the cost per ton in orbit and reduce the cost per ton to eventually reach the surface of Mars,” Musk, who emphasized that there is a cost per ton to reach the surface of Mars that must be met So that a self-sufficient city can be created. The CEO of SpaceX explained that “no one can fly to Mars for a billion dollars,” adding that there is no amount of money in the world today that can secure a ticket to the Red Planet.

On an evening criticizing the Apollo missions that propelled man to the surface of the moon, Musk went further and asserted that humanity could not afford to reach Mars, They leave traces on the surface and do not return for 50 years; He even indicated the need to think of humans, in the future, as a “multi-planetary race” to be able to survive the kind of catastrophe that endangers life on Earth.

“The next big thing is to build a self-sufficient city on Mars and Bring the animals and creatures of the earth there“, pointing to. This would be, in the words of the magician, a sort of “future Noah’s Ark” that would house more than two specimens of each type because it would be “a little weird if there were only two”. Thus, the entrepreneur seeks to develop a large settlement on the red planet.

During the interview, Elon Musk was also encouraged to analyzeWhat would the default form of government look like for the first colonists of Mars. It would be a new front and a good opportunity to reimagine the nature of government. I would suggest having a direct democracy in which people vote directly on something rather than a representative democracy.”

Are Elon Musk’s times realistic?

In November 2018, he confirmed in an interview that the goal would be achieved in 2024, a prediction that clearly would not be fulfilled and that at that time there were qualified votes against it. This does not necessarily mean that the new expectation of not continuing to operate for more than 10 years is wrong, but it does mean that It will depend on the pace of spacecraft development without any hindrances..

Also, if we take into account the delays suffered by NASA’s Artemis project, of which SpaceX is a part, the story does not look very good. It is reported that the US space agency recently delayed its plan to return to the moon Even “not before 2025”.

Space critics have conflicting positions. While space policy expert Greg Autry Business Insider said: Professor Serkan Seydam of the University of New South Wales in Sydney said Elon Musk likely won’t reach Mars until 2029. SciTechDaily that it The establishment of a settlement on the red planet will be possible between 2040 and 2050.

Elon Musk’s promises aren’t always kept. In fact, he himself considers that accuracy in serving dates is not a strong fit, But there is no doubt that it is capable of developing projects of such magnitude that many are betting on failure. With SpaceX, for example, Succeed in rewriting air transport standards.

Is it possible to establish a permanent colony on Mars?

“The Starship is the most complex and advanced rocket ever. The primary improvement of the Starship is to reduce the cost per ton in orbit and reduce the cost per ton to eventually reach the surface of Mars,” Musk, who emphasized that there is a cost per ton to reach the surface of Mars that must be met So that a self-sufficient city can be created. The CEO of SpaceX explained that “no one can fly to Mars for a billion dollars,” adding that there is no amount of money in the world today that can secure a ticket to the Red Planet.

On an evening criticizing the Apollo missions that propelled man to the surface of the moon, Musk went further and asserted that humanity could not afford to reach Mars, They leave traces on the surface and do not return for 50 years; He even noted the need to think of humans, in the future, as a “multi-planetary race.” To be able to survive some kind of disaster that endangers life on Earth.

“The next big thing is to build a self-sufficient city on Mars and Bring the animals and creatures of the earth thereThis would be, in the words of the magician, a kind of ‘future Noah’s Ark’ that would house more than two specimens of each type because it would be ‘a bit strange if there were only two.’ Thus the entrepreneur seeks to develop A large settlement on the red planet.

During the interview, Elon Musk was also encouraged to analyze What would the default form of government look like for the first colonists of Mars. It would be a new front and a good opportunity to reimagine the nature of government. I would suggest having a direct democracy in which people vote directly on something rather than a representative democracy.”

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