Poll: Doubts and doubts among climate experts

A separate report from the United Nations Environment Program dated October 26 this year forecastClimate commitments announced so far could limit atmospheric temperature rise to 2.7°C. In the first week of the United Nations Climate Summit, the International Energy Agency (IEA) calculated this global warming Can be narrowed down to 1.8°, provided that all countries adhere to their existing CO₂Achieving methane reduction goals. The Climate Action Tracker, a consortium of scientific and academic organizations, also analyzed recent commitments at the Climate Conference. The probability that it will be possible to limit warming to two degrees is now estimated at 34 percent – Higher than before, if not quite high. And all this only on the condition that the countries fulfill their promises.

Given the history of broken climate promises, it is not surprising that the climate experts polled by Nature had their doubts. However, we should be concerned, says Diana Leverman, a geoscientist at the University of Arizona in Tucson. “Even if they are pessimistic, we should think twice more,” she says.

However, scanning “nature” has its limitations. For example, the opinion of 60 percent of IPCC authors was not recorded. Two of those contacted also made contact with nature independently of each other and criticized the fact that opinions were requested rather than research results. All respondents responded as individuals and not as representatives of the IPCC. Nevertheless, it does provide an insight into the mood in large part of the authoring of the IPCC report.

There are also positive signs in the survey results

Despite all the doubts, there are also signs of optimism in the answers. At least 20% of those surveyed expect the participating countries to be able to limit global warming to 2°C. Four percent believe the world will meet the very ambitious target of a temperature rise of no more than 1.5 degrees – although many experts essentially wrote off that when the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.

Charles Coffin, a climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, bases his hopes on advances in science and technology and on changing public opinion. It is also pleasing to note that the global temperature curve is likely to fade quickly once humanity stops emitting greenhouse gases. This contrasts with the previous view, which held that a stagnant climate system would warm for decades, even if emissions were stopped immediately. Coven also points out that the costs of sustainable energy sources are falling and that public opinion is increasingly calling for countermeasures in light of the observed effects of climate change — in Coven’s home country, California, for example, wildfires are becoming a permanent phenomenon.

“I firmly believe that the majority of people really care about the future,” Coven says. “And that it is possible for governments to coordinate and avoid the worst consequences of climate change.”